The path forward for Chinese electric vehicle titan BYD appears increasingly turbulent. A significant block trade by institutional investors and candid admissions from the company’s own leadership have cast a shadow over its outlook. While international sales surge, Chairman Wang Chuanfu has openly acknowledged technological gaps in the critical home market. This confluence of events raises questions about whether the industry leader is entering a prolonged period of consolidation.
Leadership Acknowledges Technological Pressures
Adding to the market’s concerns, BYD’s Chairman Wang Chuanfu made surprisingly frank comments during an extraordinary general meeting. He conceded that the company’s technological edge over domestic rivals has eroded, specifically naming competitors Xiaomi and Leapmotor as having caught up technologically.
In response, Wang announced that “substantial new technologies” are already in development, with a particular focus on increasing charging speeds to recapture a competitive advantage. This strategic pivot follows a downward revision of the company’s sales forecast in September, which saw the 2025 annual target reduced from 5.5 million to 4.6 million vehicles.
A Tale of Two Markets: Home and Abroad
BYD’s recent operational data highlights the urgency of this strategic shift, revealing a stark divergence between its domestic and international performance:
- Slumping Home Sales: November marked the seventh consecutive month of year-on-year sales decline in China. For the first eleven months of 2025, domestic sales fell by 4.8 percent.
- Soaring Exports: In stark contrast, the export business is booming. Shipments from January through November exploded by over 153 percent, reaching approximately 913,000 units.
Despite the pronounced weakness at home, total sales for the year to date have risen by just over 10 percent to 4.13 million vehicles, powered entirely by the robust export performance.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?
Institutional Selling Weighs on Sentiment
Market participants noted a substantial transaction off the regular exchange order books this Friday. A block of 8.8 million shares changed hands in a block trade, executed at a price of HK$99.15 per share. This represents a total transaction value of roughly HK$872.5 million.
Such large-scale trades are closely monitored, as they frequently signal institutional investors reducing their exposure. The execution price now serves as a key technical reference point for the stock’s near-term trajectory. From a chart perspective, the equity is sending mixed signals: while the 50-day moving average remains in a positive trend, shorter-term indicators and the 200-day line point to a “sell” signal.
Valuation and Analyst Outlook Remain Cautious
The market is carefully weighing the discrepancy between international growth and domestic stagnation. With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 21.4, BYD shares currently trade above the Asian industry average of 18.6. The majority of analysts rate the stock merely a “Hold.” Their average price target of HK$90.00 sits below the level of today’s block trade.
For investors, the focus in the coming months will be on the execution of the promised technology offensive. Whether the new charging systems can close the technological gap and stabilize sales in the vital home market will likely determine the stock’s medium-term direction. Until then, resistance near the block trade price level is expected to cap any significant upward movement.
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