Shares of gold mining giant Newmont have enjoyed a powerful rally, but a wave of contradictory developments is creating investor uncertainty as the trading week concludes. While operational news from Ghana is positive, emerging analyst warnings about valuation and potentially risky acquisition plans are introducing skepticism. Market participants now find themselves weighing strong fundamentals against concerns over the company’s future capital allocation strategy.
Operational Success in West Africa
Amid the broader market speculation, the company delivered concrete news on Friday: commercial production has officially commenced at the Ahafo North project in Ghana. This marks a significant milestone in Newmont’s growth plan. The mine is projected to contribute approximately 50,000 ounces of gold in 2025, with a planned ramp-up in 2026. This achievement underscores Newmont’s capability to bring new production capacity online, positioning it to capitalize on the current elevated prices for precious metals.
Diverging Analyst Views and M&A Speculation
The recent unease stems from a clear split in expert opinion. Analysts at BNP Paribas Exane downgraded the stock from “Outperform” to “Neutral,” simultaneously reducing their price target from $107 to $97. They cited valuation concerns following the equity’s substantial advance—it has climbed more than 106 percent since the start of the year. They also noted that the optimization following the Newcrest acquisition is largely complete.
In contrast, UBS maintains a more bullish stance, raising its price target from $105.50 to $125.00. The Swiss bank continues to see upside potential, driven primarily by a supportive macroeconomic backdrop for gold.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Newmont Mining?
The skepticism from BNP Paribas is given further weight by fresh market rumors. According to reports, Newmont is considering a purchase of Barrick Gold‘s assets in Nevada, where the two companies already operate a joint venture. Such a move would grant Newmont full control over one of the world’s most significant gold complexes. However, it immediately raises questions about capital discipline. Historically, institutional investors often view large-scale acquisitions at the peak of a commodity cycle with a critical eye.
The stock reacted to this mixed set of signals with volatility, closing Friday’s session at €77.08. A modest daily decline of 0.81 percent reflects the market’s balancing act between positive production updates and the risks associated with a potentially costly expansion.
Moving forward, market attention is likely to focus on any confirmation or denial of the Nevada acquisition rumors. Should concrete negotiations materialize, short-term volatility is expected to increase as investors assess the financing and strategic merit of such a deal. From a technical perspective, the area around $90 serves as a key support level, with the all-time high acting as resistance. The next scheduled event for greater clarity will be the reserve update and 2026 outlook, anticipated in the first quarter.
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