The celebrated Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy is confronting a pivotal moment that could reshape its future. As its stock continues a steep decline, the company now risks expulsion from major market indices—a move analysts warn could trigger billions in forced selling. Perhaps more startling for long-time followers is a recent shift in corporate rhetoric that appears to challenge the firm’s foundational “HODL” strategy.
A Fundamental Shift in Philosophy
Investors received a jolt last week when CEO Phong Le suggested the company might consider selling portions of its Bitcoin holdings under specific conditions. This represents a significant departure from the long-standing corporate doctrine of never divesting its crypto assets. Management outlined a scenario where sales could become a “real option”: if the stock’s market value relative to its Bitcoin holdings—known as the NAV ratio—falls below 1.0 and the company lacks access to new capital. That ratio currently stands at approximately 1.15, a notable drop from its level above 1.50 at the start of 2025.
The Looming Threat of Index Exclusion
Compounding these concerns is a direct threat to the stock’s liquidity. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor confirmed on Wednesday that Strategy is engaged in discussions with index provider MSCI regarding its potential removal from the flagship MSCI World and MSCI USA indices. The trigger for this review is a new set of rules under consideration by MSCI that could exclude so-called “digital-asset treasury” companies whose cryptocurrency holdings exceed 50% of total assets. With a treasury of 650,000 Bitcoin, Strategy far surpasses this threshold. A final decision from MSCI is anticipated by January 15, 2026.
Analysts at JPMorgan have modeled the severe consequences of an exclusion. Passive funds and ETFs that track these indices would be compelled to sell their holdings, potentially unleashing a wave of selling pressure.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Strategy?
The projected impact includes:
* An estimated $2.8 billion in direct outflows solely from removal from the MSCI indices.
* A total risk of up to $8.8 billion if other major index providers enact similar rules.
While Saylor has questioned the precision of these estimates, market sentiment remains anxious. The share price is mired in a significant downtrend, having lost more than 45% of its value since the beginning of the year.
Downgraded Forecasts and a Leveraged Reality
The company’s operational outlook has also darkened. Management has substantially revised its full-year guidance, abandoning a previous Bitcoin price assumption of $150,000. The new, more conservative model now operates within a range of $85,000 to $110,000.
Saylor offered a blunt assessment of the stock’s inherent volatility, describing it as a leveraged bet on Bitcoin’s price. “If Bitcoin declines 30 or 40 percent, the stock will fall further, because it is built to fall,” he stated. This dynamic has proven profitable for short-sellers, who have reportedly reaped billions in gains this year. The analyst community remains divided, though many maintain elevated price targets. The weeks leading to the MSCI decision will likely prove decisive for the future of Strategy’s equity.
Ad
Strategy Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Strategy Analysis from December 3 delivers the answer:
The latest Strategy figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Strategy investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from December 3.
Strategy: Buy or sell? Read more here...
