Investors are demonstrating unexpected confidence in BYD, actively acquiring shares despite the automaker reporting its third consecutive monthly sales decline. This apparent contradiction resolves upon a deeper examination of the latest figures, which reveal a fundamental strategic realignment. A powerful new growth narrative, fueled by overseas expansion, is emerging to counterbalance emerging softness in the company’s home Chinese market.
Domestic Market Shows Signs of Strain
A closer look at November’s delivery data of 480,186 vehicles—a 5.3% year-over-year decrease—uncovers a mixed and increasingly competitive landscape at home. The performance highlights a significant shift in segment dynamics.
- Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs): This category provided a positive note, with deliveries rising 20% to 237,540 units.
- Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs): A segment long dominated by BYD witnessed a sharp contraction, with sales falling 22%.
- Intensifying Rivalry: Competitors including Geely and Xiaomi, with its popular YU7 model, are capturing greater market share.
Adding to the pressure is a looming policy change: China’s tax exemption for new energy vehicles is scheduled to expire on December 31, 2025. While such deadlines typically spur last-minute demand, the anticipated pull-forward effect has so far been weaker than industry observers had hoped.
Exports Emerge as the Growth Engine
The true catalyst for today’s investor optimism, which propelled BYD’s Hong Kong-listed shares up by as much as 4%, lies beyond China’s borders. The company’s international business is experiencing explosive growth, decisively outperforming domestic rivals Nio and Xpeng.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?
In November, BYD exported 131,935 vehicles, a figure representing a more than fourfold increase compared to the same month last year. This remarkable acceleration has led analysts at Morgan Stanley to suggest the electric vehicle giant is on a solid path to achieve its ambitious target of one million export units for the full year 2025.
Annual Target and the 2026 Outlook
Despite the contrasting trends, BYD’s cumulative sales through November remain robust at 4.18 million vehicles. To hit its recently revised annual target of 4.6 million units, the company needs to deliver approximately 418,000 vehicles in December.
Citigroup analysts have characterized the November results as “better than expected,” with the investment focus now clearly shifting to 2026. Company leadership has already set an ambitious goal of 1.5 to 1.6 million vehicle sales outside China for the coming year. If this global bet proves successful, it could effectively compensate for the current domestic slowdown. The upcoming December sales figures, due in early January, will provide the next critical data point on whether this strategic pivot is gaining the necessary traction.
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