The cryptocurrency sector is experiencing significant turbulence, with XRP finding itself at the epicenter of conflicting forces. As regulatory approval emerges in Singapore and a landmark U.S. ETF begins trading, the digital asset’s price is engaged in a tense battle to maintain its position above the crucial $2 threshold. This convergence of events presents a pivotal moment for investors.
Singapore Grants Ripple a Strategic License
A major development arrived from Asia today. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has awarded Ripple an expanded Major Payment Institution (MPI) license. This authorization permits the company to substantially grow its digital payment services within the jurisdiction, which now include settlement capabilities using both XRP and its proprietary stablecoin, RLUSD.
The significance of the Singapore market should not be underestimated. On-chain activity there has surged approximately 70% year-over-year. This license effectively grants Ripple access to banks, fintech firms, and major corporations across the entire APAC region, representing a fundamental strategic advancement.
U.S. ETF Debuts Amidst Institutional Demand
In a parallel development, the 21Shares Spot XRP ETF (Ticker: TOXR) launched today on the Cboe BZX exchange, marking the fifth major U.S. ETF product for the asset. This launch follows a notable trend: since mid-November, over $660 million has flowed into XRP investment products. The data suggests institutional investors are positioning for long-term appreciation, even as some retail traders engage in sell-offs.
This divergence in behavior could prove decisive. ETF providers are required to purchase the underlying assets physically. This institutional demand is meeting a shrinking available supply on exchanges, with 1.35 billion XRP having been withdrawn from trading platforms since September, creating a potentially potent market dynamic.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?
Price Action and Technical Concerns
Currently, the price situation appears precarious. XRP is trading within a narrow band between $2.02 and $2.08, reflecting a decline of roughly 7-8% over the past 24 hours. The key support level at $2.00 is under severe pressure. A sustained break below this level could trigger a swift move toward $1.90, with some analysts warning of a potential fall to $1.61 in a worst-case scenario.
Adding to the selling pressure is Ripple’s scheduled monthly release of 1 billion XRP from escrow, a practice ongoing since 2017. While historical patterns show 70-80% of these coins are typically re-locked, the mere announcement often weighs on market sentiment. The technical picture is further clouded by the formation of a “Death Cross,” where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day average, typically interpreted as a bearish signal.
The Looming Potential for a Supply Shock
On-chain metrics reveal a striking trend: 45% of XRP holdings have been moved off exchanges since late September. This indicates a decreasing volume of coins readily available for sale. If ETF-driven demand accelerates while this “hodling” behavior persists, the market could face a classic supply shock, which has the potential to propel prices upward.
However, the immediate challenge remains defending the $2 level. Failure to do so could see prices retreat to $1.77 or lower, according to some market observers. Conversely, in a bullish scenario, experts at institutions like Standard Chartered project price targets as high as $5.50 by year-end, driven by institutional inflows and supportive regulatory developments.
December 1, 2025, may well be remembered as a definitive turning point for XRP, though the ultimate direction remains fiercely contested.
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