Is the Norwegian hydrogen specialist, Nel ASA, staging an unexpected recovery? After a period of sustained technical pressure, the company’s shares demonstrated notable resilience on Wednesday, attracting measurable buyer interest. While bearish sentiment has dictated the recent trend, a flicker of bullish activity has emerged. Investors are now left to ponder a critical question: is this the beginning of a long-awaited reversal, or merely a brief pause before the decline resumes?
Technical Picture Shows Fragile Gains
The recent price action offers a tentative sign of life, but the broader context remains challenging. On the German Tradegate exchange, the equity advanced by approximately 1.8 percent to €0.200. This uptick is a welcome development, yet the stock continues to trade perilously close to its annual low of around €0.166, a level that serves as a crucial test for investor sentiment.
A similar pattern was observed on its home market in Oslo, where shares gained nearly 4 percent to close at 2.38 NOK. However, caution is warranted. The price remains firmly below the significant 200-day moving average, a widely watched barometer for long-term trends. Furthermore, the resistance level at 2.60 NOK has proven to be a formidable barrier in recent weeks, leaving the technical outlook for the stock still impaired.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
Strong Headlines Clash with Weak Financials
The fundamental backdrop presents a curious paradox for market participants. In November 2025, the company released a series of significant announcements that, under normal circumstances, would be expected to fuel optimism.
- A major $50 million contract for 40 MW of electrolyser equipment (HyFuel and Kaupanes) was announced on November 6.
- The company was confirmed as the technology partner for GreenH projects on November 10.
Despite these positive developments, the market’s reaction has been characterized by deep skepticism. Initial price gains following the news were quickly sold into, revealing a lack of sustained conviction. This hesitancy stems directly from the bare numbers reported in the third-quarter results. A 17 percent decline in revenue to just over 303 million NOK alarmed investors. The “news premium” appears to be evaporating quickly while profitability remains a distant prospect; a loss per share is still anticipated for the full 2025 fiscal year.
A Precarious Position
The current stabilization around 2.38 NOK represents, at best, a momentary respite. The glaring discrepancy between a supposedly healthy order book and simultaneously falling revenues creates a toxic mix of uncertainty. For the bears to be proven wrong and a genuine trend reversal to be confirmed, buyers must muster the strength to secure a sustained breakout above the 2.50 NOK threshold. A failure to achieve this could trigger a ruthless retest of the annual lows. Investors are navigating exceptionally turbulent waters, and the burden of proof now rests squarely on Nel ASA to demonstrate tangible operational progress.
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