A clear split in analyst sentiment is currently shaping the market outlook for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. On one side, Public Investing reports a consensus “Buy” rating from three analysts, accompanied by a price target of $10.83. Conversely, data from MarketBeat presents a more cautious “Hold” stance, reflecting the opinions of seven analysts whose recommendations break down into three “Buy,” three “Hold,” and one “Sell,” with a marginally higher average price objective of $10.88.
Solid Q3 2025 Earnings Fuel the Discussion
The company’s financial results for the third quarter of 2025, released on October 30, serve as the foundation for this ongoing debate. The REIT posted a GAAP net income of $48 million, equating to $0.34 per share. Its distributable earnings were reported at $42 million, or $0.30 per share. When adjusted for one-time items, the core distributable earnings figure stood at $0.23 per share.
As of September 30, the firm’s investment portfolio had a carrying value of $8.3 billion. Loans tied to residential properties constituted a significant 31% segment of this portfolio. The quarter was also marked by robust origination activity, with $1 billion in new loans closed, bringing the total volume for the year to date to $3 billion.
Strategic Shifts and European Expansion
Management is looking beyond current performance, highlighting a strategic capital reallocation expected to start boosting earnings from the fourth quarter of 2025. This initiative, aimed at deploying non-productive capital into higher-yielding assets, is projected to continue delivering benefits through 2026.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance?
Furthermore, the company’s expansion into Europe is being touted as a potential growth catalyst. Executives pointed to successful capital deployment in the region and noted that its parent company, Apollo, is heading for a record year in global commercial real estate lending.
Investment Outlook: Weighing the Potential
For investors, the central question is whether the stock presents a compelling opportunity at its current level. The analyst price targets, ranging from $10.83 to $10.88, suggest an approximate 12% upside from the recent share price of $9.74. This price places the stock in the lower half of its 52-week trading range, which spans from $7.70 to $11.11.
The ultimate factor for the stock’s trajectory will be the company’s ability to successfully execute its capital reallocation strategy and deliver on its promised earnings growth. The market will be watching closely for confirmation of this progress when the full-year 2025 results are announced in early 2026.
Ad
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Analysis from November 4 delivers the answer:
The latest Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from November 4.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance: Buy or sell? Read more here...
