2G Energy carries an order backlog of more than EUR 600 million, yet the stock is caught between a “Strong Buy” at EUR 82 and a “Sell” at EUR 39. The gap has little to do with how many orders the company has booked. It comes down to a single unresolved question: when those orders convert into revenue and earnings — and whether the margin can carry the weight.
Two Houses, Two Very Different Readings
SMC Research upgraded the shares from “Buy” to “Strong Buy” on Monday, lifting its price target to EUR 82.00 from EUR 80.00. The broker pointed to strong order intake and the potential for margin expansion. A separate buy recommendation dated October 16 carried a target of EUR 90.00, with the recent share-price weakness described as overdone and the fundamental picture judged intact.
Parmantier & Cie. sees it differently. The research house reaffirmed its sell rating on October 15, keeping a EUR 39.00 target and citing an EBIT margin of 0.6% in the first-half figures.
The Backlog Problem: Size Without Timing
At the heart of Parmantier’s objection is the limited informational value of the order book. A large volume of orders can support the business outlook, but without a breakdown by delivery year, it is impossible to say how much those orders will contribute to any given annual statement.
That missing split matters at a backlog above EUR 600 million. In Parmantier’s assessment, the full-year guidance also rests almost entirely on the second half. Investors therefore face two separate questions: how much business has actually been ordered, and when it will show up in the results. The critique does not dispute that the backlog exists — it targets its timing and the earnings visibility that can be derived from it.
A Weak First Half Sets a High Bar
The half-year report put revenue at EUR 136.0 million and EBIT at EUR 0.8 million, both below the prior-year figures. That leaves a thin base for the profitability the company is targeting.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying 2G Energy?
Parmantier attributed the burden in part to one-off IT project costs, higher depreciation and early-stage hiring. That reading comes from the research itself; it explains the weak development but does not yet demonstrate an ensuing improvement.
For the full year 2026, 2G Energy confirmed revenue of EUR 440–490 million and an EBIT margin of 9.5–10.5%. Hitting that range requires a far higher level of profitability than the first half delivered — by Parmantier’s reckoning, nearly the entire annual EBIT would have to be generated in the second half.
Where the Two Calls Diverge
The opposing verdicts rest on different emphases rather than different facts. SMC focuses on the opportunities embedded in the order intake; Parmantier on the heavy earnings requirement for the remainder of the year. The optimistic case leans on an intact fundamental trajectory, while the skeptical side wants more clarity on how orders and earnings fit together. A high price target on its own does not answer that operating question.
November 23 Is the Next Reckoning
2G Energy plans to publish revenue and EBIT for the third quarter of 2026 on November 23, giving a fixed date against which both views can be tested.
What matters then is how the two figures interact. Higher revenue alone would not settle Parmantier’s margin critique. More telling will be whether earnings development supports the optimistic case and how management frames the outlook for the rest of the year. The order backlog remains an important reference point in that exercise — but it is no substitute for actual profit numbers.
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